Michael Johnson, PE wrote:
> Wound Up wrote:
>
>> d
>>
>>> So, you're predicting that this huge bump in fuel costs is a
>>> long-term thing and not just a blip?
>>
>>
>>
>> Scuse me while I chime in... most economic forecasts say there is no
>> doubt it's a long-term thing for the US to see regular to average over
>> $2, anyway. Count on it all next year.
>>
>> We need more refinery capacities and fewer formulations of gasoline to
>> make an appreciable difference. OPEC doesn't have much actual spare
>> pumping capacity.
>
>
> We can't really blame the current price spike on OPEC, IMO. They are
> pumping as much oil as is needed. You're right about the refinery
> capacity being the real problem. It will take 2-3 years to correct it
> and bring capacity to acceptable levels. Then prices will stabilize for
> a good while. I do think that $1.80-$2.00/gallon gas will be the new
> benchmark when the dust settles.

Right, OPEC is actually being almost as accommodating as it can be. It
is always the scapegoat after 30 years ago, but it is not to blame this
time. And did I say "capacities"? Oops. I just wonder what their real
incentive is at this point. I mean, the producers and the refiners both
are making sooo much money because of this bottleneck, they have a very
real incentive to drag their feet.

I do hope you and others are right about that time line and price
expectations. Add "still driving '89 Tempo with 200k" to "how has this
affected your habits". The pinch has made me put off replacing it. I
only drive it about 6,000 / year anyway, so I am able to do this,
fortunately...

--
Wound Up
ThunderSnake #65